Europe’s Net-Zero Goals Hang on Carbon Removal
Europe can’t reach net zero without carbon removal – and time is running out.
Too often, climate discussions stray in search of the perfect solution, overlooking a simple truth: net zero is unattainable without carbon removal. Europe is nowhere near ready to deliver, despite plans to reach net zero by 2050.
Net zero means reducing emissions as close to zero as possible and balancing out what’s left by removing an equivalent amount of carbon from the atmosphere. Reaching this equilibrium is key to stopping global warming.
Switching to renewable energy or electrifying transport will carry out the bulk of this effort. But not every industry can be scrubbed clean. For example, the European Commission estimates that by 2050, livestock emissions will still hover around 170 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Other sectors, such as long-haul flights, cement, and chemicals, will also carry over residual emissions past the net-zero deadline.
From giant carbon dioxide vacuums to restoring forests, deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) can balance the climate ledger. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that limiting warming to 1.5°C will require the removal of 6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year by 2050, while analyses published in 2024 project 7-10 billion tonnes. Today, we remove only 2 billion tonnes – so the scale-up ahead is enormous. However, the need is clear, and so is the opportunity; if done right, CDR can become one of the 21st century’s defining climate industries.
A strategic investment
Most durable CDR and storage solutions are still in development and will need significant investments to reach scale. But rather than viewing this ramp-up as another cost on Europe’s bill, it’s worth considering the benefits.
Europe is trying to turn the clean transition into an economic win, and even the Green Deal is getting an “industrial” and “competitive” makeover. Already outpaced in solar and electric vehicles, Europe can still claim the CDR frontier – especially as the United States halts Biden’s avalanche of cash earmarked for removals. Globally, the CDR market has the potential to grow into a $1.2 trillion industry, meaning a €220 billion annual market for Europe. It also means 670,000 new jobs, including a lifeline for oil and gas workers. For farmers, removals promise new income streams and more resilient crops.
Globally, the CDR market has the potential to grow into a $1.2 trillion industry, meaning a €220 billion annual market for Europe.
Investing in CDR today means pioneering the technologies the world will inevitably depend on, and exporting that know-how to other parts of the world to accelerate the global net-zero transition.
Getting the policy right
If renewables or hydrogen have taught us anything, scaling up an industry takes good regulation. With 25 years left until net zero, the EU must identify CDR’s needs and tackle them with surgical precision.
First, we need to know what works clearly and confidently, how well, and at what cost. Targeted funding for CDR research and innovation can move the needle.
Second, we set targets – a critical indicator of the EU’s commitment to removals. When revising its Climate Law, the EU should define how much permanent and land-based CDR will count towards its net 90% objective. Clear targets will accelerate investment in European CDR and create a mandate for targeted policies.
Third, demand and supply measures must push forward together to reach the pace the CDR sector needs to succeed. Public procurement or price guarantees can help the EU and member states stimulate supply while signalling demand to markets and encouraging private investments.
To accelerate the market adoption of novel CDR, it must be integrated into policy governing industrial decarbonisation. The Clean Industrial Deal can stimulate demand for low-carbon products, encouraging industries to invest in permanent removals to address residual emissions. Crucially, requiring the purchase of high-quality permanent removals through a compliance mechanism like the EU Emissions Trading System or a dedicated CDR instrument would establish them as a non-optional climate solution.
But CDR is not just about adopting new technology; it’s also about restoring forests and land. Rather than using growing risks like droughts and wildfires as justification to gain flexibility from land-sector targets, countries should respond by phasing out harmful practices, such as intensive logging or peatland drainage, and adopting sustainable land management that strengthens carbon sinks.
CDR is not just about adopting new technology; it’s also about restoring forests and land.
Above all, regulators need to make sure that removals are deployed alongside deep and sustained emissions reductions – largely achieved through separate targets – and in line with the like-for-like principle, meaning fossil carbon dioxide that will linger in the air for hundreds of years must be matched with permanent removals, while forests can balance out carbon dioxide from biogenic sources like agriculture and land use.
Ultimately, while CDR lays bare the scale of the climate crisis, it’s not a story of defeat. Instead, it’s an opportunity for Europe to harness and steer cleantech progress, putting it at the service of its people, the economy, and global climate leadership.