The 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29), held in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024, marked a key moment for climate finance negotiations globally.
Background and controversy
Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer, ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017. However, its selection as the host nation sparked controversy due to its status as an authoritarian state with widespread corruption. Adding to the criticism, many official partners of COP29 were businesses tied to President Ilham Aliyev and his family. The conference’s president, Mukhtar Babayev – an Azeri official from the state-owned oil company and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources – also raised concerns about the country’s commitment to meaningful climate action.
What was at stake
At COP29, the central challenge was to reach an agreement on mobilizing climate finance for developing nations. After intense negotiations, developed countries agreed to lead efforts to mobilize at least $300 billion annually. The deal also recognized the need to scale this figure to $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 to address global climate needs effectively.
Reaching this agreement was difficult with constrained fiscal environments and complex political dynamics in many donor nations impeding more ambitious commitments. Nevertheless, the outcome provides a foundation for ongoing dialogue and improvement.
At the POLITICO Sustainable Future Week, Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s Minister for the Environment, Climate, Communications, and Transport, and co-facilitator of the COP29 adaptation track, summarized the sentiment by stating:
Despite extremely challenging circumstances, we managed to reach an agreement in Baku. The financial commitments, while not large enough, include both developed and developing nations. In a world divided by protectionism and conflict, finding common ground gives me hope that we can rise to the challenge.
Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s Minister for the Environment, Climate, Communications, and Transport
Setbacks for climate change mitigation efforts
Despite some movement in finance, mitigation efforts stagnated at COP29. Negotiations on the Mitigation Work Programme failed to advance, with discussions marred by opposition from key petrostates. A leaked text revealed that a Saudi negotiator had directly influenced revisions to the UAE dialogue document, further complicating talks.
The final agreement on mitigation excluded references to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the Global Stocktake (GST), frustrating progressive nations. The lack of progress was seen as a step back from previous commitments, highlighting the persistent influence of oil-producing states. As a result, discussions on the UAE dialogue and Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) were postponed to the June Subsidiary Body (SB) sessions.
Progress for adaptation
While adaptation finance goals fell short of a defined sub-target, the issue received increased political attention. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) text was adopted, setting a path forward through the UAE-Belem Work Programme. A significant win for developing nations was the inclusion of calls to develop indicators for implementing GGA targets. These indicators will help track progress and scale up adaptation finance, which is critical for vulnerable countries facing climate impacts.
Dwindling national determined commitments
At COP29, fewer countries announced updated NDCs than anticipated. Notable contributions included the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates and Brazil.
A promising development was the formation of a coalition of nations committing to aligning their NDCs with long-term net-zero targets.
The upcoming February 2025 deadline for updated NDCs provides a critical opportunity for countries to announce stronger 2030 targets, introduce 2035 emissions reduction pledges, and accelerate pathways toward net-zero commitments.
On the path to COP30 in Brazil
While negotiations on mitigation were disappointing, signals outside the formal talks showed progress on the energy transition and climate adaptation. A coalition of 25 countries and the European Union, alongside industry and investor groups, called for an end to new unabated coal in energy systems – a critical step for achieving global decarbonization goals.
Looking ahead to COP30 in Belem, Brazil (2025), adaptation and resilience are expected to take center stage. The UAE-Belem Work Programme will guide efforts to build on adaptation targets, with countries across income levels needing to prioritize resilience to climate impacts.
The path to Belem offers an opportunity to reignite momentum, advance mitigation efforts, and strengthen global cooperation on finance, adaptation, and energy transition. Continued collaboration will be essential to addressing the climate crisis and achieving the goals set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement.