Tipping Points and Lifelines: The Future of Our Ocean 

Interconnected governance is needed to protect the planet’s beating heart. 

If the Amazon is the lungs of our planet, then the ocean is its beating heart. Covering more than 70% of the Earth’s surface, the ocean regulates climate, sustains life, and connects communities across the globe. Its health is inseparable from the survival of life on Earth. Yet, for much of human history, the ocean was treated as a vast, ungoverned space – too expansive, too mysterious, and seemingly too resilient to require rules. Today, that perception has been shattered. The ocean is at the centre of the planetary crisis, facing unprecedented pressures from climate change and human activity. 

Our ocean absorbs over 90% of excess heat from global warming, captures about a quarter of human-made carbon emissions, and produces half of the oxygen we breathe. But this life-support system is under threat. Warm water coral reefs, for example, have already reached a critical tipping point. Global warming of beyond the 1.2°C threshold, which is where we are already, puts these ecosystems at risk of collapse which will potentially reduce coral extent to below 10%.  

Our ocean captures about a quarter of human-made carbon emissions, and produces half of the oxygen we breathe.

Such a dieback would devastate biodiversity, fisheries, coastal protection, and the cultural fabric of tropical and coastal states. Similarly, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key system of ocean currents, faces the danger of slowing or collapsing. Its disruption would have cascading consequences for global climate, including altered weather patterns, sea-level changes, and threats to food and socio-economic security worldwide. These are high-risk tipping points that demand urgent attention. 

Yet, the ocean can also be a source of solutions. The foundation for turning the ocean’s health around is meeting the ambitious global targets we have set as humanity. For the ocean, these include UN Sustainable Development Goal 14 (Life Below Water) and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework’s goal to protect 30% of the ocean by 2030. Achieving these requires more than aspiration; it requires governance, science, and communities working in harmony. In order to accelerate the implementation of these targets, the International Platform for Ocean Sustainability (IPOS) was launched during the 2025 UN Ocean Conference in Nice to translate scientific and other types of knowledge into actionable policy solutions at national and regional levels. 

Moreover, the High Seas Treaty has now been ratified by 60 countries and is set to enter into force in January 2026. This represents a landmark step in legally protecting marine life across two-thirds of the ocean. By establishing marine protected areas, regulating environmental impacts, and managing marine genetic resources, it addresses the longstanding gaps in high seas governance.  

Through inclusive approaches to ocean governance and with innovative and ambitious actions, we can create lifelines for the ocean and foster resilience for coastal communities. Belize’s reefs, revitalised through policy grounded in science and local engagement, were removed from UNESCO’s World Heritage in Danger list within three years. In Kenya, the Kuruwitu Locally Managed Marine Area overcame initial resistance, with fish stocks rebounding and incomes tripling, demonstrating that ocean protection can deliver both ecological and social benefits. 

The ocean crisis is immediate and accelerating. Global dedication, political will, financial investment, scientific expertise, and local knowledge must converge through governance as interconnected as the ocean itself. Without swift action, we risk losing not only the ocean’s extraordinary biodiversity but its vital role as the planet’s life support system. The time to act is now – the ocean cannot wait, and neither can we.